BY GEORGE HAY

Qatar’s World Cup has suffered an awful lead-in. Since the tiny emirate successfully pitched for soccer’s quadrennial showcase event in 2010, it has grappled with accusations of corrupt bidding and exploiting migrant workers. Shifting the competition to November 2022 to avoid Qatar’s unbearable summer has further lowered expectations. Yet the jamboree could still be a success for the region.

Back in 2010 Qatar argued the World Cup could benefit the whole Gulf. As recently as 12 months ago, that sounded fanciful. Qatar was in the fourth year of a blockade spearheaded by Mohammed bin Salman and Mohamed bin Zayed, de facto heads of fellow Gulf Cooperation Council members Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The short hop from Dubai to Doha had become a lengthier round trip via neutral Oman. While the blockade ended in January, Saudi and the UAE have been at odds over trade tariffs and oil policy, and whether multinational companies will locate regional headquarters in Dubai or Riyadh.

Hosting the World Cup won’t banish these tensions. But the tournament may rev up the GCC’s anaemic post- pandemic recovery. Though the GDP of leading Gulf countries suffered the same 4.9% average contraction as the G7 in 2020, they’re set to grow just 2.6% in 2021, half the rate of the largest developed economies, the World Bank reckons. Sales of oil and gas, which bring in over half the state revenue of most GCC members, are still recovering after the 2020 demand slump.

An influx of tourists would therefore be welcome. The World Cup should bring more than 1 million fans to the emirate, equivalent to a third of its population, according to the tournament’s chief executive. But it’s not clear where they will all stay. Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Bahrain can all benefit by offering alternative bases.

Things could yet go awry. Though Doha is less uptight than Riyadh, inebriated western fans could face brusque treatment. The national teams of two even fiercer enemies, Saudi Arabia and Iran, may face each other on the pitch. And another virulent strain of Covid-19 could see France’s Kylian Mbappe and England’s Raheem Sterling playing in empty stadiums.

Still, the Gulf’s first World Cup seems like more of an opportunity. To wean the GCC’s young populations off fossil fuel-enabled state subsidies, their economies need foreign direct investment inflows to aid short-term recovery and longer-term diversification. Despite its unsavoury origins, Qatar 2022 is a handily timed shop window.

First published December 2021